DK’s Tech prediction for 2011

OK, I know I’m never good at tech prediction. My 2010 tech prediction was so wrong that it cannot be even wronger.

I predicted that tablet will not take off. That was during the time when iPad was still a rumor. I didn’t think that something like iPad would be successful. In fact, I didn’t think it will be successful when Steve Jobs announced it. But I’m wrong. I think we can safely say that Tablets has taken off. In fact, its hard not to see at least 1 iPad when you go to any Starbucks in Singapore. Lousy DK.

Well, at least I predicted the death of JooJoo. But that is sure win prediction. So not counted.

But whatever it is, I’m still going to make my 2011 tech prediction. Just for the fun of it. I’ve already told you guys my track record. So don’t take them too seriously. Haha.

2011 will be the year of the Tablets
This is really an irony from my 2010 predictions. But judging from things that are happening now, this prediction is a sure winner. iPad will continue to dominate the Tablet market. We will definitely see lots of Tablets at CES 2011. Most of them will be running Android. RIM will release their PlayBook Tablet in 2011. HP’s Palm will most likely release their WebOS Tablet too. And Microsoft will try to enter the Tablet market with their Windows 7.

Windows 7 tablet, tried by failed
Speaking of Windows 7 tablets, Microsoft (with their hardware partners) will definitely release tablets running on Windows 7. But it will not be as popular as iPad, Android tablets, PlayBook or WebOS tablet. Windows 7 is just not suitable for a Tablet form factor. Perhaps Microsoft should explore doing Tablets with Window Phone 7 OS instead.

iPad 2 with front facing camera
Apple will announce their next Generation iPad. The iPad will come with a front facing camera for Face Time. But there will be no back camera. Look guys, its stupid to take photo with a 9.7 inch tablet. I’m sure Steve Jobs knows that. (Fingers crossed)

Colour e-ink reader from Amazon
Despite the rise of iPad and Android Tablets in 2010, there is still a great demand for Kindle. I predict that Amazon will release a colour e-ink Kindle in 2011. It’s about time this technology become ready for the consumer market. The colour will not be as good as Tablets but it should be able to keep all the bookworms happy.

Nokia release smartphone running either Windows Phone 7 or Android
I know Nokia have been saying no to this. They believe that Symbian and MeeGo will enable them to continue to add value to consumers. But I think at one point, they will finally give in and release a phone that is not on Symbian or MeeGo. It will most likely be a Windows Phone 7 since their new CEO used to work in Microsoft. But there is a slight chance that it might be an Android.

Rise of Windows Phone 7
Microsoft did an amazing comeback with Windows Phone 7. It is still not the perfect mobile operating system yet. But I’m sure Microsoft will fix all the shortcoming (copy and paste, multitasking etc etc) by mid 2011. I think we will see more phone makers releasing handset on Windows Phone 7 platform. Windows Phone 7 will eat into Android and Symbian’s market share. By the end of 2011, Windows Phone 7 should have at around 10 to 15 percent of the Smart Phone market.

Google Chrome OS revive netbook market
I know a lot of people are still wondering why is Google releasing Chrome OS. Most people think that Android Honeycomb is good enough and there is no need for Chrome OS. I disagree. I’ve seen an earlier version of Chrome OS in action. I think it has potential. I think people will finally get what Chrome OS is meant for when it is launched in the market. It will help revive the netbook market which seems to have died in 2010. Oh, and those netbook are most likely super low end and cheap netbooks since Chrome OS is pretty lightweight and can run on low end computers. Telco subsidies will also help push for the Chrome OS device sales.

Apple stop using Google Map for iOS
I always wonder why is Apple still using Google Map on iOS. I guess Apple is working on a Google Map replacement for iOS. Apple has acquired mapping company Placebase in July 2009 and Poly9 in July 2010. I think it’s about time they roll out their own mapping service. I wish there will be free turn by turn navigations. But that is just wishful thinking from my end. Quite unlikely. Maybe subscription or one time payment for turn by turn navigations.

No white iPhone 4
It just doesn’t make sense for Apple to release a white iPhone 4 this year. We all know that Apple will release a new iPhone in the middle of the year. Unless Apple is able to release the white iPhone 4 by February 2011 (which is quite unlikely), I say there won’t be a white iPhone 4 at all. But I do think Apple will definitely release a white iPhone 5 (or whatever they are going to call it).

Phones with Near Field Communications launched in Singapore but slow pick up in services
We’ve seen Near Field Communications on Nexus S. I’m sure we will see more phones with NFC in 2011. Some of them will make their way to Singapore. But despite having phones with NFC in the market, services like payments using NFC will not pick up in Singapore. It’s just like using EZ-Link to make purchase. Almost everyone have an EZ-Link card. But how often do you see someone using EZ-Link card to make purchase? Someone need to find a killer feature for NFC in Singapore. Payment just won’t make the cut.

Singapore roll out LTE for consumers but takeup rate is slow
We know that the 3 Telcos are testing LTE and it should be ready for consumer rollout in 2011. But the take up rate will be slow mainly because of the high charges and limited choices of devices. It will take a while for mainstream LTE adoption. Maybe in 2012. And I predict we will not see a iPhone with LTE in 2011. This is also most likely one of the main reason why LTE take up will be slow.

Social Media will play an important role in Singapore General Election
This is like a 2 part prediction. Firstly, I’m predicting there will be an election this year. (Which is very likely) Next I’m predicting that Social Media will play an important role in the election. It think this should be a sure winner.

No major phone makers except Apple will release phones using MicroSIM
Honestly, I hated the MicroSIM. There is a reason why MicroSIM hasn’t been adopted by most phone makers. There is no need for it. There’s not enough benefits to justify the painful switch from normal 2nd Form Factor SIM card to the MicroSIM. And I predict that in 2011, no major phone makers will release a phone on MicroSIM except Apple.

So what are your predictions for 2011?

Disclaimer: These predictions are my own views and not representative of those of my employer.

5 Responses to 'DK’s Tech prediction for 2011'

  1. Aaron Koh says:

    Would you be interested to find out how Taggo uses NFC cards like the ezlink cards to identify Facebook fans at the point of sale?

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