OK, let’s start the new year with my Tech prediction. I’m never good with predictions. If you check my 2011 Tech prediction results, you will notice that I’m pretty bad with this stuff. If you are betting on any of my predictions, your chances of winning is much higher if you bet that I’m wrong. Haha.
Oh well, just for the fun of it. So here goes.
Facebook IPO in first half of 2012
Let’s start my 2012 Tech prediction with something safe. We all know that it’s going to be a matter of time before Facebook goes IPO. I think it will be happening in the first half of 2012.
2012 will be the year of the Smart TV
2011 is the year of the Tablet. I think 2012 will be the year of the Smart TV. We will most likely see a lot of Smart TV with interesting connected features like access to online movie library and social media platform. TV makers will be pushing their Smart TV to capture as much marketshare as possible before the Apple TV that Walter Isaacson mention in Steve Jobs book hit the market. And speaking of Apple TV, I think it is definitely in the works. I’m just not sure if we will see it in 2012.
Rise of the Ultrabooks
We’ve seen a lot of interesting Ultrabooks by most of the major laptops makers in late 2011. I think we will see more Ultrabooks in 2012. In fact, I think Ultrabook will be as popular as netbooks back in 2008/2009.
Rise of Windows Phone 7
OK, I know I’m wrong with my Windows Phone 7 prediction last year. But I really think Windows Phone 7 has potential and now that Nokia is onboard, we will most likely be seeing Windows Phone 7 gain a substantial market share in competitive mobile market. Majority of them are Android users switching over because they are fed up with the fragmentation of Android.
Nokia to release a Windows 8 tablet
I’m pretty sure that Nokia is planning a Tablet product. And since they are working closely with Microsoft on Windows Phone 7, I think it will be natural that Nokia use Windows 8 for their Tablet. We might actually see a good iPad contenter here.
Amazon to adopt WebOS for Kindle
Amazon is currently using a customized version of Android 2.3 for their Kindle Fire. I predict that Amazon will move away from Android and use WebOS for their future Kindle since WebOS is now Open Sourced. This will most likely make Amazon the biggest WebOS device maker.
Google continue to focus on social
I think Google will spend the entire 2012 focusing on social. We will see more Google services like Google Doc, Google Maps, Google Reader and even Google Search tied closely with Google Plus. 2012 will be the make or break year for Google Plus. And we can be sure Google won’t give up so easily.
OK, I know Steve Jobs said this will not happen. But he also said that Apple will not be doing Phone and iPod won’t have video capabilities. The new Mac OS Lion seems to be designed for a Touchscreen with the inverted scroll. I think iMac will have a Touchscreen to make full use of these features. I think MacBook Pro will also get Touchscreen at a later stage. Maybe late this year or sometime next year.
Voice recognition hype to fade away
Thanks to Apple and Siri, everyone is talking about voice recognition nowadays. But honestly, how many people are comfortable with speaking to a machine? And how often do you find yourself in a quiet place where you can get voice recognition to work properly? Unless you are driving, chances of you using voice recognition in a meaningful way is rather slim. I think people will start to figure out that voice recognition is just a hype. Phones will still come with voice recognition. But by end of the year, nobody will bother much about it.
Major mobile OS malware/virus
Malware for Mobile OS is nothing new. Hackers have been targeting mobile OS for quite some time already. I think in 2012, we will see a mobile OS malware or virus become widespread and affect millions of phone.
Slow global NFC take up rate
Last year, I predicted that NFC take up rate in Singapore will be slow. It will be the same this year. In fact, I think it is safe to say that the NFC take up rate globally will be slow in 2012. There will still be quite a number of phones with NFC. Google will try to push for their Google Wallet with NFC payment. But it will be met with lots of roadblocks. The main roadblock will be other companies trying to push their own standards. Don’t we all miss standards war?
Slow LTE take up rate in Singapore
This is like part 2 of my 2011 prediction. I think we will see a couple of LTE phones launching in Singapore. I think the LTE take up rate will be slow. LTE phones will be expensive and have poor battery life. The 3 Telcos in Singapore will not be able to cover the entire Singapore with LTE network by end of 2012. And I think the next iPhone will not have LTE. So slow LTE take up rate in Singapore.
Creative Technology gets acquired
OK, this is a wild prediction. Creative Technology hasn’t been performing well for the past few years. But they still have some useful patents which they filed during their heyday. Their ZiiLABS StemCell Computing Architecture also look promising if someone knows how to put it into good use. I think Creative Technology will get acquired for their patents portfolio.
No Doomsday on 21 December 2012
OK, I know this is not quite tech related. But I’m pretty sure 21 December 2012 will just come and go. It’s just the Mayan calendar having its “Millennium bug” moment. But then, if 21 December 2012 is really Doomsday, nobody will be around at the end of the year to say “See! DK got it wrong!”.
Disclaimer: These predictions are my own views and not representative of those of my employer.